May 17, 2003 Legislative Report

SHORT RECAP: On the 5^th of May, 2003, the Missouri Senate and House made HISTORY! For the first time in twelve years of debate, a bill defining a license-to-carry proposal was passed and ready for the Governor´s action.

HERE IS WHERE WE ARE TODAY

If you haven´t gotten the word yet, let me give it to you LOUD AND CLEAR...
Governor Bob Holden NEEDS to HEAR from YOU.

Tell Governor Holden that you support HB349 and respectfully request that he allow HB349 to become Missouri law. ALWAYS BE POLITE.

Contact him today and have your pro-LTC friends contact him as well.

You can contact him by phone, fax, email and regular post. We recommend you DO ALL FOUR! Here is his contact information:

Why does Governor Holden need to here from YOU?

Governor Holden is basing his stance [and his political future] on the premise that he needs to veto HB349 in order to win re-election.

GOVERNOR HOLDEN FACES PRIMARY CHALLENGER

For those who are not aware, our sitting Governor will very likely be challenged in the Democratic primary by State Auditor Claire McCaskill.

The Governor´s liberal advisors are telling him that the only way to beat Claire in the primary is to veto this bill [and a few others] to shore up his "base" voting block, liberal Democratic St. Louis City and St. Louis County.

His advisors apparently have already given up of the Governor winning the primary votes from Kansas City [Claire's home port] and the rural conservative Democratic voters [because she "appears" to be moderate]. They feel the key to victory in the primary is to win St. Louis City and St. Louis County.

As they are telling him... if you don´t win the primary, you don´t have to worry about the general election.

BUT... is their advice really sound? Or is this advice just the result of engrained liberal paradigms?

The Governor has MORE than one choice - An analysis

Governor Holden´s future is in trouble. His term so far has not been stellar. But how can License-to-Carry potentially alter his future?

We will explore that below by looking at potential outcomes if Governor Holden vetos HB349; allows HB349 to become law; or signs HB349 into law.

The Veto Impact - What will it do?

St. Louis Area -- If he vetos the bill, Governor Holden will please some of his liberal St. Louis area base. The bad news is vetoing HB349 does NOT really separate him from Claire. All the liberals in St. Louis know that if Claire were in the mansion, she would veto it too. So does vetoing HB349 really gain Governor Holden any support for the 2004 primary? Not really, especially since his veto will occur this year... a full year before he needs the support... a full year in which other issues could come between him and his "base". But more importantly, and quite possibly overlooked by the Governor´s advisors is the ten to fifteen percent of the union voters who will vote for their gun rights and LTC. They could quite possibly vote for Claire in the primary because they will remember the veto of LTC [pro-LTC voters have LONG memories].

Rural, "Democratic" Missouri -- If the Governor vetos the bill, what impact will that have on the normally Democratic rural conservative/moderate voter? His veto solidifies Claire´s hold on those rural primary votes because she still appears moderate and he will have clearly cast his vote [veto] in direct opposition to the wishes [overwhelmingly supported Prop B] of the normally Democratic rural base... the same base that has abandoned the Democratic party and voted Republican because of the LTC issue. In fact, there is a STRONG possibility that his veto of HB349 will energize that pro-LTC base to VOTE FOR CLAIRE during the primary BECAUSE of his veto.

KC Area -- The Governor´s veto of HB349 might strip a few votes from Claire for him, but she hails from the area and has good "connections" in the area. PLUS... all the anti-LTC liberals in the KC area also know she would veto HB349. So, Governor Holden´s veto doesn´t gain him much in KC area either.

Short term: Some gain in St. Louis area. Virtually no gain in KC. GIVES rural Missouri to Claire.

Long term primary impact: Primary is over a full year away. Plenty of time for "support" for veto to whither. But SUPPORTERS of LTC have PROVEN their LONG memories and tenacity at pushing this bill. While LTC opponents may forget his veto by primary time, LTC supporters WILL NOT and will ENERGIZE LTC supporters to OPPOSE his continuing past the primary race next year.

Summary: If Governor Holden vetos HB349 on the premise that it will help him win the primary, he may be miscalculating. The veto does not really separate him from Claire in the liberal urban areas and could solidify/energize opposition to him in rural areas.

Impact of "allowing" HB349 to become law - What will it do?

St. Louis Area -- If Governor Holder were to exercise the option of allowing HB349 to become law, it would make many of his liberal supporters mad. But... would that translate to lost votes in the primary? If the primary were to be held THIS year... maybe. But if he allows it to become law, by the time the primary for 2004 occurs, Missouri would have been living with HB349 for nearly a year and discovered what every other one of the thirty-four states that have passed LTC have found: IT WORKS.

Many of the non-ultra liberals and the moderates in the urban areas will be wondering what all the big "fuss" was about after the law has been in effect for one year -- just about primary time [see Henry J. Waters editorial]. We are not guessing at this response, we have nineteen other states that we can look to that have passed LTC while we were debating. The reponse of the honest opponents has universally been "oh... it hasn't been that bad."

Moderate Democrats who support LTC will look favorably on allowing LTC to pass and could be convinced to vote for Holden in the primary because they also will know that Claire "would" veto if she were in the mansion.

Rural "Democratic" Missouri -- Rural Democrats have long felt abandoned by their party that they feel are becoming way too liberal and forgetting the party´s conservative, moderate roots. That is why they have abandoned their party in many recent high-profile elections to vote for Republicans. Care to guess what one of the cross-over issues is? Yes... LTC/Second Amendment rights. Senate Dist 18 is a prime example of this in the 2000 Senate race where Republican John Cauthorn defeated his Democratic opponent - in a "democratic" district. Senator Cauthorn was one of two such races that gave control of the Senate to the Republicans.

If Governor Holden were to allow HB349 to become law, he could chip away and even possibly capture a majority of the rural conservative votes that right now feel they have no real choice but to vote for Claire [the only "moderate" in the primary race]. IF the Governor were so bold, he could even tell rural votes how he allowed HB349 to become law and possibly energize support for his primary race.

KC Area -- If Governor Holden were to allow HB349 to become law, liberals [who will support Claire in the primary anyway] will be upset. But they too will not be as upset one year from now when the primary actually takes place. Governor Holden may actually be able to scoop some of Claire´s moderate voters from the KC area to vote for him JUST BECAUSE he allowed HB349 to become law.

Short term results: Ultra Opponents to LTC [small number] will be mad that Governor Holden allowed HB349 to become law. Most liberals will be upset. But moderates and conservatives from urban areas AND rural areas will be glad.

Long term results: Liberals concern over LTC passage will dissipate. Moderates and Conservatives from rural areas would actually have a reason to SUPPORT Governor Holden in the primary.

Note: Some liberal advisors to the Governor will state that my claim that opponents to LTC will not be as upset one year from now [during the primary] has no basis. But I submit the following. In every one of the nineteen states that has debated and passed LTC reform while we have talked about it [1991 till now] MANY vocal opponents have made statements that after passage they changed their minds about LTC.

NOT one state has mounted an effort to overturn passage of their law. And if you ask those states that passed it, they wonder what all the commotion was about. [Question: In any of the states that has passed LTC in the last twelve years, does the "Million" Mom´s ask their candidates to overturn LTC? Answer: No. Second question: Why? Hint... it is harder to scare a populace that has been living under LTC for a year than one that has no experience living with LTC.]

A SHIFT IN THE OPINION OF PAST OPPONENTS

PLUS we have two current examples from Missouri of well known liberals who are already reconsidering LTC: Bill McClellan [columnist for the Post Dispatch] and Henry J. Waters III [Publisher, Columbia Daily Tribune]. Even before the bill has been acted upon by Governor Holden, these two well known [amongst others], long time opponents of LTC have begun to rethink their positions.

Bill McClellan discussed LTC reform on last weeks "Donny Brook" televised on St. Louis´ PBS affiliate. The s""liberal" McClellan stated that he WAS opposed to Prop B, but that his has looked at the other 30+ states that have it and it seems to be "no big deal". He went on to say that he is not sure he is opposed to it passing.

Whoah!

Then, Henry Waters III, ultra-liberal newspaper publisher from Columbia, stated in a editorial on May 9^th that he thinks that maybe liberals should support allowing people to defend themselves.

Double Whoah!!!

Maybe it is time for the Governor and his advisors to take another look around the political landscape before he picks up a pen.

Summary on Allowing HB349 to become law -- If Governor Holden allowed HB349 to become law, he would have short term pain. Some of his supporters who oppose LTC will be upset... initially. But they will move on and support him by the time the primary comes around. The governor will benefit because he will pick up moderate and rural voters who support LTC. This would cut Claire´s current advantage in the outstate region and push him over the top.

PLUS... by allowing it to become law NOW... with one of the most RESTRICTIVE laws proposed in the nation... the issue would be off the table next year. If it is still on the table, it could hurt him further and hurt his party even more.

Impact of SIGNING HB349 into Law - What will it do?

I would attempt to explain this... but I don´t know if the paradigms of Governor Holden´s advisors would allow them to see it. I will save it for a later email. Let us just say that properly presented, SIGNING HB349 into Missouri law could possibly get Governor Holden what he wants. I am just not sure he or his advisors can see it.

OVERALL SUMMARY

Governor Holden is being advised that in order to make it past the primary NEXT YEAR, he "needs" to veto HB349 this year. His opposition is based on politics not the reality of the impact this law will have. The sad truth is that IF he vetos this bill, it will be at least one more year in which honest Missourian´s will needlessly be attacked, robbed, raped and murdered because they have no effective legal means to defend themselves out side the home.

Governor Holden now has it within his power to remove this blight from Missouri law. He is the FIRST Missouri Governor to be given this opportunity [contrary to urban myth, Governor Carnahan never had a LTC bill placed on his desk].

The question is now, who will the governor side with? He has thirty-four other examples where these laws have been passed and honest citizens have successfully defended themselves from violent predatory criminals. Will he follow the example of these other enlightened states and side with the honest citizens of this state? Or will he veto HB349?

It is now Governor Holden´s turn to vote. And then it will again be our turn.

Contact Governor Holden today and help him make the right decision on HB349. POLITELY ask him to allow it to become Missouri law. We have waited long enough.

Thanks,

Greg Jeffery
Legislative Chairman
Gateway Civil Liberties Alliance
Legislative Coordinator
Missourians for Personal Safety
Designated Part-time Spokesman
Western Missouri Shooters Alliance

IF you have not signed up for our Grass Roots Action Network email list, please do so today. Don´t forget that you can see our alerts, our newsletters and other pertinent information on the struggle to enact License-to-Carry legislation for Missouri by visiting our website at: www.gclastl.org or the website of other state grassroots groups such as MPS at: www.moccw.org and WMSA at: www.wmsa.net and MSSA at: www.missourisportshooting.org.